Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could see a 120% price increase in 2025 if it sticks to a consistent pattern tied to its four-year growth cycle, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said Wednesday.
What happened: CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman drew attention to the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend, a metric that tracks Bitcoin’s annual price performance since 2011. The indicator reveals a recurring cycle of three years of growth followed by one of consolidation, matching Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle.
“The importance of this growth cycle is that, based on this metric, if Bitcoin maintains the pace typical of the third year in the cycle, it could grow about 120% during 2025,” Aleman wrote.
If this trend holds, Bitcoin could rise from $93,226 at the start of 2025 to about $205,097 by year-end, marking a cycle top.
“This places us in the final phase of the current cycle, with important strategic implications for investors aiming to align their positioning with Bitcoin’s multi-year structure,” the analysis read.
Why It Matters: Bitcoin growth cycles have been a subject of great interest in the cryptocurrency community.
Typically, the apex cryptocurrency experiences halvings in the first half of the market cycle. This event could be the catalyst for growth toward new highs, which usually occur around 18 months after the halving.
However, with changing investor dynamics caused by the launch of spot exchange-traded funds and rising institutional interest, some have begun to question the accuracy of these cycles.
Widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader Justin Bennett said in September of last year that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles won’t last for long due to its correlation with broader business cycles.
Bitcoin veteran and trader Fred Krueger argued that the four-year cycle is based on limited data points and questioned its continuation, given that mining rewards, a key driver of past cycles, have dropped considerably.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $104,910.24, down 0.65% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo: Antonio Gravante On Shutterstock.com
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