Noted data scientist, Thomas Miller of Northwestern University, recognized for his precise election forecasts, has made a prediction for the forthcoming Trump vs. Harris presidential election.
What Happened: Miller, who accurately foresaw the results of the 2020 presidential and Georgia senatorial races, has come forward with a new prediction for the 2024 presidential election, reported Fortune.
Miller’s approach, which utilizes data from political betting sites rather than conventional polls, has shown high accuracy in the past. “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” Miller stated to Fortune. He contends that while polls mirror past sentiments, betting odds can offer a more precise prediction of future outcomes.
For the 2024 presidential race, Miller is again employing PredictIt, a U.S. political betting site, for his forecasts. He observes that the site has a steady group of investors and provides current data, making it a dependable source for his analysis.
According to Miller’s model, Harris is presently leading Trump. He ascribes this shift to several factors, including the recent Trump-Harris debate and a crucial endorsement for Harris. If the current trend persists, Miller anticipates a substantial victory for Harris in the upcoming election.
“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” said Miller. He said it would now take an equally dramatic shift in Trump’s favor for the ex-president to come back into contention. Miller said as things stood now it appeared as if Harris would win big on November 5.
Miller’s predictions have been remarkably precise in the past, making his forecast a significant point of interest as the election nears. His unique approach to election forecasting offers a new viewpoint on the potential outcome of the Trump vs. Harris race.
Miller’s analysis suggests that as of September 10, millions of Trump supporters likely shifted, triggering a ripple effect that could eventually benefit Harris, though few see it yet.
Why It Matters: A recent poll taken after the September 10 presidential debate from the Trafalgar Group showed Trump overtaking Harris in North Carolina, with 48.4% to her 46%. Despite an underwhelming debate performance, Trump gained a 2% shift from Harris’ supporters, narrowing the previously slim lead she held in earlier polls.
The trends reported by Benzinga showed Harris gaining ground in key battleground areas. Furthermore, Harris posted a record 6-point lead in a national poll after the debate, indicating a strong momentum in her favor after the event.
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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Shivdeep Dhaliwal
