Polarization, a term that has dominated headlines for years, is a complex issue that encompasses a wide range of social phenomena, from racial segregation and class divide to political ideology and labor skill levels. Edelman, a global communications firm, has developed a method to measure this elusive concept, using survey data to determine which countries are the most polarized.
Edelman’s approach is straightforward. They ask respondents two key questions: how divided is their country, and how entrenched is that divide? The responses shed light on the social issues each country grapples with and the degree of consensus—or lack thereof—on these issues.
The results are plotted on a chart, with countries in the top-right corner deemed “severely polarized,” and those closer to the bottom-left considered less so. Edelman identifies four key metrics to quantify polarization: economic uncertainty, inequality, institutional distrust, and social issues.
Countries grappling with economic instability, inequality, and a lack of trust in institutions are more likely to be polarized. Argentina, despite being one of Latin America’s largest economies, is the most polarized country surveyed. A combination of foreign loan defaults, a high fiscal deficit, and surging inflation have created a perfect storm of polarization. Only 20% of Argentinians trust their government, the lowest rate among all surveyed countries.
The United States, too, is grappling with severe polarization, fueled by political upheaval and ideological entrenchment between Democrats and Republicans. Only 42% of American respondents trust their government. South Africa, with its persistent inequality and declining trust in the African National Congress, also fits Edelman’s polarization criteria. It ranks second after Argentina in terms of government distrust, with a rate of 22%.
Edelman’s chart also identifies a group of 15 “moderately polarized” countries, including economic powerhouses like Japan, the UK, France, and Germany, as well as smaller economies like Thailand, Kenya, and Nigeria.
Interestingly, countries with a positive economic outlook and high institutional trust, such as China, Singapore, and India, are in the bottom-left sector of the chart, indicating lower levels of polarization. Notably, three of the seven countries in this sector are not democracies, suggesting that political system type may also play a role in polarization.
Edelman underscores that polarization is both a cause and consequence of distrust, creating a self-perpetuating cycle. As we navigate the uncertainties of 2023, including the threat of a global recession, it will be intriguing to see how these dynamics evolve and whether countries shift positions on the polarization chart.
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