Back in October, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia were strained when, in concert with Russia, Saudi Arabia cut oil production, causing economic concerns for the US just in time for the midterm elections. President Joe Biden vowed that unspecified “consequences” would follow for the Saudis. However, three months later, Saudi Arabia and its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, remain unpunished.
Biden has been notably silent on specifically what form his retaliation might take, and has made no moves for proposed Congressional action. US officials told the Wall Street Journal in early January that the threat has been dropped. Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State analytics, told Insider that the Journal article seemed to match reality. “The White House’s commitment to actions that would make the Saudis face consequences has faded,” he said.
One key factor, Cafiero noted, is that oil prices did not rocket in response to the Saudi supply cut, despite predictions that they would. China’s economic slowdown as it wrestled with a severe COVID-19 outbreak helped reduce demand and keep a lid on prices.
Cafiero also noted a series of other developments that had focused minds in both the US and Saudi Arabia on common interests. The most significant, he said, is the threat posed by Iran. Iran has rejected Biden administration attempts to revive the 2012 nuclear deal to limit its ability to develop its own warheads. The Islamic Republic has also strengthened its military ties with Russia, providing exploding drones that have been used in waves of attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine, a US ally. And Iranian proxies continue to wage war against Saudi Arabian-backed forces in the long and costly conflict in Yemen.
“The situation in Iran is relevant here as both the US and Saudi Arabia have concerns about Tehran trying to regionalize its internal unrest in ways that could entail lashing out in nearby countries,” Cafiero said. In November, the US scrambled jets amid reports that Iran was preparing to launch missiles at Saudi Arabia, a move credited with helping deter the aggression. And the US has continued to provide broader security assistance for the Saudis, last year approving $5 billion in arms sales.
Officials from the US and Saudi Arabia told the The Journal that the countries were cooperating on sensitive intelligence and military projects aimed at containing Tehran. Tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia remain, with Riyadh’s bid to build stronger ties with US rivals China and Russia likely to be a continued sticking point. Crown Prince Mohammed’s ruthless suppression of domestic dissent is another issue which could cause a rift. But for now, shared interests prevail. “Those shared concerns serve to reinforce to team Biden the importance of Washington’s partnership with the Kingdom,” said Cafiero.
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